The expectations of international financial institutions regarding the reduction of money transfers from Russia to the countries of Central Asia due to the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict have not yet materialized, said Yevgeny Zhukov, Director General of the Asian Development Bank for Central and West Asia.
“When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began last year, our projections for economic growth, for the transfer of money in Central Asia were very pessimistic,” he told Asia Plus on May 5 at a briefing as part of the ADB annual meeting, which takes place in Incheon. (South Korea).
According to Zhukov, specialists from the ADB, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other international financial organizations expected that “the Russian economy would suffer very badly, and that these transfers would greatly decrease.”
“In fact, we see that these fears have not come true. At least until now, Russia has managed to defend its economy, and this has led to the fact that the flow of labor migrants from Central Asia continues to this day. Remittances from the Russian Federation to Central Asia also are holding up well,” he said.
However, Zhukov continued, the conflict continues, and no one knows how long it will last and what effect it will have on the Russian economy in the medium term, especially in the long term.
He stressed that ADB specialists are closely monitoring the situation with labor migration from the Central Asian countries to the Russian Federation in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the influx of remittances from the Russian Federation to the Central Asian countries.
However, he noted, the problem is that these transfers now have two components – transfers of labor migrants and transfers of those Russian citizens who have temporarily moved to the countries of Central Asia.
“Our economists find it difficult to separate these two streams, but we will track these transfers,” he added.
Meanwhile, an April ADB report said that more than 50% of households (about 735 thousand people) in Tajikistan rely mainly on remittances.
The authors of the report emphasized that 80% of remittances to the republic come from Russia, where about 1 million citizens of the republic work.
According to the ADB, more than 200,000 Tajik citizens who also have Russian citizenship work in Russia.
Note that the Tajik authorities refuse to provide media representatives with data on money transfers, although there are no legal restrictions on this.
Previously, Tajik media received this information on the website of the Central Bank of Russia. However, after the outbreak of the armed Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian regulator refrains from publishing such data.
The reasons and timing of the suspension of the publication of data are not reported.
The total amount of money transfers of individuals from Russia to Tajikistan in 2021 amounted to $1.8 billion, which is 3.4% more than in 2020.
More than 76% of these transfers were made by citizens of Tajikistan, and about a quarter – by Russian citizens and / or persons living in the Russian Federation with a residence permit. In the total amount of these funds, 94.3% were rubles, 5.6% – dollars and 0.1% – euros.
Source: Asia Plus
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